It’s hard to believe that the CedTalk tradition of predicting the Ghanaian economy is already in its fifth year. If you want to take a look back at how (in)accurate we have been over the years, see 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. This year we are back with another set of predictions from some of the best young Ghanaian analysts.

ANDREWS AKOTO

Bio: Senior Trader at Barclays

• The current policy-easing cycle approaches an end, and the Monetary Policy Committee will hike interest rates in 2020. Begrudgingly perhaps, as political pressure to ease the cost of credit to businesses will exist — especially in an election year. However, an inflation outlook at risk, and a vulnerable currency will justify a hawkish posture.

• Despite pronounced upside risk to the inflation outlook emerging from increased government spending, headline inflation is likely to stay within single digits for 2020.

• The cedi is likely to post a better full-year performance in 2020 than its 2019 full-year depreciation of 14% against the dollar. This will be on account of an early Eurobond issuance, an improving current account balance, and a largely priced-in fiscal risk sentiment by offshore investors. Similar levels of volatility are not unexpected though.

• In the political environment; navigating the arduous task of delivering its ambitious 2016 election promises, the current government fairly frequently draws the ire of the swinging electorate — seemingly a case of over-promising and under-delivering. Some voter apathy may emerge at the 2020 polls because of this. That notwithstanding, the incumbent administration is likely to secure a second term.

AGYA YAW OTENG ASANTE

Bio: Development Consultant, Policy Analyst, Oil and Gas Infrastructure Developer, and Political Commentator

The government has kept talking of raising revenues and capital accumulation over the past year. I believe their desire for capital accumulation stems from their understanding that it never precedes industrialization, it continues to grow as you begin to expand industries. Hence, I believe we will see more roll out of factories, provision of stimulus support for industries et cetera this year in all to achieve their industrialization agenda.

If you stop corruption, block leakages, put in money into industries, it is those industries that will create jobs and then create a basis for more tax revenue. I believe the government has looked over the past three years at where all the latent capital was sitting and will unlock them this year.

JEROME KUSEH

Bio: Economist & Financial Analyst

The expected inflow of forex from Eurobonds in the early part of 2020 will have a positive impact on the exchange rate but the currency will slide in the latter part of the year due to the impact of interest payments and election-related capital flight. The government will struggle to keep the deficit within 5% of GDP due to the fiscal pressure of election years, revenue underperformance and the payment of customers with funds in defunct financial institutions. The GSE has seen somewhat of a slight recovery going to the end of the year but bearish sentiments and the tempting yields from fixed income products will continue to hamper the performance of stocks.

PS: This post will be updated with the predictions of other analysts shortly so please check back.