As has been a tradition at CediTalk since 2015, I have reached out to a few analysts to share their predictions for the economy in the coming year. As usual, I end with my prediction. You can also read last year’s prediction to see how accurate we were.

Senam I. Amematekpor

Bio: Finance researcher and aspiring doughnut economist

I’m inclined to believe that Ghana will experience positive growth in 2019. This is based on the introduction of the Ghana Reference Rate and Ghana Commodity Exchange. The Ghana Reference Rate should finally yield results by reducing the cost of borrowing as expected. This should enable businesses have more access to funds to expand operations and employ others. The Ghana Commodity Exchange should boost the sale of commodities and consequently increase the share of the agricultural sector to GDP.  

Terry Abban

Bio: Finance Manager & Investor

There will be stability in the banking sector, but I fear micro finance companies will drastically fail any stress test. 2019 will be a good year to invest on the GSE; the economic climate discouraged investors but the GSE-CI is ending 2018 (YTD) on -0.28% to my surprise. It’ll also be a good year to sell on the forex. With election 2020 in mind I expect the government to be more conservative with spending, with the BoG pushing policies to discourage consumption (like making t-bills even more attractive) and borrowing even more from the public by issuing out medium to long term bonds. The government would also not gamble with taxes next year and fuel hikes will be inevitable. Hearts of Oak will win the GPL and Ghana will win the Afcon if Akwesi Appiah is not coach. 

Patrick Edem Agama

Bio: Financial Blogger & Analyst

Expectations for 2019 are high on some grounds but no one can deny that the uncertainties brewed in the latter days of 2018 is affecting the outlook of 2019.On the stock market, 2018 saw one of the greatest rally in the history of the Ghanaian bourse for the first quarter and this can largely be attributed to the momentum built from Q4 2017. This momentum was totally lost in the Q3 & Q4 of 2018. That dampens the hope of 2019 a bit. Aside that, bond yields are still rising, creating competition for stocks amid economic uncertainty. Talking of Economics, Government spending is something we need to keep eyes on. It’s expected not to go as planned looking at history for years before the election year. Investors must choose their investments wisely and diversify appropriately especially when necessary.To conclude, I would like to mention that, there’s significant build up in the bids on the stock market compared to the offers. When the demand increases further, prices will rise and that will once again make stocks attractive. So 2019 from my lens is a mixture of the good, the bad and the ugly.

Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng

Bio: Policy Analyst

2019 will be a challenging year for Ghana’s economy. With the campaign for the 2020 elections unofficially beginning, the government will find it difficult to control spending. Fulfilling campaign promises like Free SHS, One District, One Factory, and One District, One Dam will put pressure on government finances. The mulled 100-year $50 billion bond could bring in the much-needed funding for these projects, but it is unlikely to go ahead because of the country’s debt financing position and a global shift from emerging market bonds. In addition, Meralco’s takeover of the Electricity Company of Ghana will lead to price adjustments, and possibly aggressive debt collecting, which will put pressure on businesses and consumers.

Naa Korkoi Tackie

Economic analysts have predicted global growth to decelerate over the next two years. Based on this, your guess about my expectations for the Ghanaian economy in 2019 is as good as mine. There is going to be a surge in the cost of living – prices will go up while individual economic power remains constant. In fact, majority of countries (if not all countries) will have a hard time trying to at least, maintain economic growth. Ghana being a destination of choice in 2019 (CNN Ranking) will inevitably affect the economy as influx of tourists into a country influences hikes in the cost of living. Maybe the Ghanaian economy wouldn’t be hit too hard as growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is projected to plateau, reaching 4.7 percent in 2019 and 2020, up from 4.5 percent in 2018. Everyone will do with a bit of hope; right? Happy New Year!

Mohammed Abubakari

Bio: Economic Research Analyst at Groupe Nduom

The Ghanaian economy will face a bit of turbulence in the first two quarters especially in the financial sector. This is because of the current actions of the regulators in the market because after the banks most analysts expect BoG to continue its cleanup exercise in the Savings and Loans sector. But things are expected to be much better in the next two quarters where most of the sectors would have fully adjusted to the new reforms introduced. Inflation is expected to be under control and the cedi is also expected to perform much better than in the previous years. This can be attributed to the fact that planting for foods and jobs has started yielding results and we are seeing bumper harvests to the extent that we have started exporting food to neighbouring countries. Government is also expected to spend more and create more jobs because 1D1F is expected to take off fully as well as one village one dam.

Jerome Kuseh

Bio: Accountant, Economics & Finance Analyst, Editor of CediTalk.com

The passing of the Fiscal Responsibility Act should ensure that government will keep spending under budget even with the exit of the IMF. This should help inflation to remain under the psychological double-digit level. However, lower projected revenues as a result of the oil price fall could affect the deficit. Freshly-recapitalized banks would push for more business as the larger base would require more profits to meet a decent ROI. The GSE’s return would be buoyed by a fresh round of dividend payments, especially that of MTN. Unless they cave under pressure from Trump, the US Fed would hike rates which should put downward pressure on the cedi and commodity prices.